Why count ballots "in situ".
In this week’s Sunday Standard, under his column “Badge of Courage”, and headlined “The UDC is at risk of being hijacked by former Presdient Dr Khama”, Professor Dipholo writes “At this stage, election matters particularly those relating to petitions and allegations of rigging are considered very sensitive and only those mandated to speak on behalf of their parties must do so and do so in a manner that acknowledges the sensitivity of the issue”.
Professor Dipholo’s statement is very unsettling, because it seems to suggest that we, the voters, have no business talking about election irregularities at this stage. A good many voters, possibly the majority are NOT members of political parties. The only time these voters are given a say in the running of their country is at elections. If the elections are rigged, it is the ordinary voter who loses the most because he/she has no other forum to influence the democratic trajectory that his/her country is presumed to follow. That cannot be right.
Our two most recent general elections have been observed by the African Union and the SADC. The 2014 general election elicited a recommendation from the African Union observer mission that in future elections ballots should be counted BEFORE being moved. The same recommendation has now been made by the SADC observer mission regarding our latest general election, 2019. But the government remains silent on the recommendations. It is fair to assume that the government has no intention of implementing the recommendations. The bland statement by President Masisi in the recent state of the nation address (SONA), to the effect that his government will review the constitution, lacking details as it does, cannot be considered an answer to the calls to count ballots and paste results at polling stations. The constitution is an all-encompassing document. “Reviewing the constitution” can mean almost anything.
Here is my take on why moving ballot boxes before counting the ballots presents a vote rigging opportunity. I will state what I know to be facts, what I suspect to be unsubstantiated rumours, and my speculations flowing therefrom.
FACT: Just before the 2014 general elections, the biggest Russian freight plane ever to visit our country landed in our capital, Gaborone. The freight it was carrying did not go through normal customs processes. Instead it was collected straight from the plane by the country’s Intelligence services, and with flashing blue lights, the convoy of vehicles carrying the freight wheezed past perplexed customs officials towards an unknown destination.
RUMOUR: The freight was rumoured to be election materials – ballot boxes, ballot papers etc. The number of ballot boxes was rumoured to be more than TWICE the number we normally use at general elections.
MY CONCLUSION: If the rumour is correct, then it means we have had two sets of ballot boxes available for use at each general election since. The first set is the one that we voted into; the one whose emptiness the election officials displayed at the start of voting. The second (secret) set of ballot boxes could be pre-loaded with ballot papers that have been marked exactly as per the desired election outcome by those rigging the election.
Preparation of this second (secret) set of ballot boxes could start as soon as the voters roll is ready i.e. at the end of the voters’ registration exercise. On Election Day all that the riggers need to do is to switch the two sets of ballot boxes, by substituting the second (secret) set of ballot boxes for the first (actual) set of ballot boxes. Voila! The election is won with an “overwhelming majority”.
Switching the boxes is a piece of cake, AS LONG AS BALLOT BOXES ARE ALLOWED TO MOVE FROM THE POLLING CENTRES TO COUNTING CENTRES BEFORE COUNTING TAKES PLACE. The “police” are in charge of transportation of boxes. Even where the “police” are accompanied by political party representatives, it’s the “police” who call all the shots. Furthermore, during transportation of ballot boxes, the party representatives accompanying the ballot boxes do not know the identities of all groups that may flag the transport with their own ballot boxes, supposedly from other polling stations. These flagging groups could be rigging agents carrying a ballot box from the second (secret) set. This “doctored” box could be marked with a chemical which becomes fluorescent only under ultraviolet light for example, in order to ensure that it is distinguishable from the “real” ballot box during the switching. The switching could then be carried out right in front of the political party guards accompanying the ballot boxes, without raising any alarms.
THE TELL-TALE SIGNS: One consequence of the pre-loading of the secret ballot boxes per the rigging script is that voters who register late could potentially render the total number of ballots in the “doctored” boxes different from the actual number that ends up voting. This could give the game away. To counter-balance this discrepancy WITHOUT UPSETTING THE PRE-DETERMINED ELECTION OUTCOME, the “doctored” boxes would have to be stuffed with SPOILT VOTES, lots of them; in fact exactly as many as the late voter registrants. Therefore one tell-tale sign of the rigging method described here is that there will be unusually many spoilt votes, if late voter registration was allowed.
WAY FORWARD: I am not alleging that either the 2014 or the 2019 elections (or both) were rigged, because I do not have the evidence to point to such rigging. What I am doing is to explain the reasons for the calls that ballot papers be counted at the polling centres, and the results be announced by being publicly displayed at the polling centres. As things stand now, the published official results of the last two general elections mean absolutely nothing. No scientific conclusions can be drawn from them.
Professor Dipholo’s statement is very unsettling, because it seems to suggest that we, the voters, have no business talking about election irregularities at this stage. A good many voters, possibly the majority are NOT members of political parties. The only time these voters are given a say in the running of their country is at elections. If the elections are rigged, it is the ordinary voter who loses the most because he/she has no other forum to influence the democratic trajectory that his/her country is presumed to follow. That cannot be right.
Our two most recent general elections have been observed by the African Union and the SADC. The 2014 general election elicited a recommendation from the African Union observer mission that in future elections ballots should be counted BEFORE being moved. The same recommendation has now been made by the SADC observer mission regarding our latest general election, 2019. But the government remains silent on the recommendations. It is fair to assume that the government has no intention of implementing the recommendations. The bland statement by President Masisi in the recent state of the nation address (SONA), to the effect that his government will review the constitution, lacking details as it does, cannot be considered an answer to the calls to count ballots and paste results at polling stations. The constitution is an all-encompassing document. “Reviewing the constitution” can mean almost anything.
Here is my take on why moving ballot boxes before counting the ballots presents a vote rigging opportunity. I will state what I know to be facts, what I suspect to be unsubstantiated rumours, and my speculations flowing therefrom.
FACT: Just before the 2014 general elections, the biggest Russian freight plane ever to visit our country landed in our capital, Gaborone. The freight it was carrying did not go through normal customs processes. Instead it was collected straight from the plane by the country’s Intelligence services, and with flashing blue lights, the convoy of vehicles carrying the freight wheezed past perplexed customs officials towards an unknown destination.
RUMOUR: The freight was rumoured to be election materials – ballot boxes, ballot papers etc. The number of ballot boxes was rumoured to be more than TWICE the number we normally use at general elections.
MY CONCLUSION: If the rumour is correct, then it means we have had two sets of ballot boxes available for use at each general election since. The first set is the one that we voted into; the one whose emptiness the election officials displayed at the start of voting. The second (secret) set of ballot boxes could be pre-loaded with ballot papers that have been marked exactly as per the desired election outcome by those rigging the election.
Preparation of this second (secret) set of ballot boxes could start as soon as the voters roll is ready i.e. at the end of the voters’ registration exercise. On Election Day all that the riggers need to do is to switch the two sets of ballot boxes, by substituting the second (secret) set of ballot boxes for the first (actual) set of ballot boxes. Voila! The election is won with an “overwhelming majority”.
Switching the boxes is a piece of cake, AS LONG AS BALLOT BOXES ARE ALLOWED TO MOVE FROM THE POLLING CENTRES TO COUNTING CENTRES BEFORE COUNTING TAKES PLACE. The “police” are in charge of transportation of boxes. Even where the “police” are accompanied by political party representatives, it’s the “police” who call all the shots. Furthermore, during transportation of ballot boxes, the party representatives accompanying the ballot boxes do not know the identities of all groups that may flag the transport with their own ballot boxes, supposedly from other polling stations. These flagging groups could be rigging agents carrying a ballot box from the second (secret) set. This “doctored” box could be marked with a chemical which becomes fluorescent only under ultraviolet light for example, in order to ensure that it is distinguishable from the “real” ballot box during the switching. The switching could then be carried out right in front of the political party guards accompanying the ballot boxes, without raising any alarms.
THE TELL-TALE SIGNS: One consequence of the pre-loading of the secret ballot boxes per the rigging script is that voters who register late could potentially render the total number of ballots in the “doctored” boxes different from the actual number that ends up voting. This could give the game away. To counter-balance this discrepancy WITHOUT UPSETTING THE PRE-DETERMINED ELECTION OUTCOME, the “doctored” boxes would have to be stuffed with SPOILT VOTES, lots of them; in fact exactly as many as the late voter registrants. Therefore one tell-tale sign of the rigging method described here is that there will be unusually many spoilt votes, if late voter registration was allowed.
WAY FORWARD: I am not alleging that either the 2014 or the 2019 elections (or both) were rigged, because I do not have the evidence to point to such rigging. What I am doing is to explain the reasons for the calls that ballot papers be counted at the polling centres, and the results be announced by being publicly displayed at the polling centres. As things stand now, the published official results of the last two general elections mean absolutely nothing. No scientific conclusions can be drawn from them.
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